Hedging and epistemic distance

Written German almost never asserts flatly. Between Die Maßnahme wirkt and Die Maßnahme wirkt nicht there is a whole range of positions, and choosing one is a C1 skill in itself. Two different things are being marked, and it helps to keep them apart: how certain I am (epistemic strength) and whose claim this is (source distance).

Certainty and attribution are separate. vermutlich says I am fairly sure. angeblich says someone else claims it and I am not vouching for it. A text can be certain about an uncertain source, and unsure about a reliable one.

es dürfte … is the workhorse of careful written German. It is Konjunktiv II of dürfen, and it means "is likely to", never "is allowed to". Do not read it as permission.

• Die Maßnahme dürfte langfristig Wirkung zeigen.

  The measure is likely to have an effect in the long run.

  confident, but not asserting it

• Die Maßnahme wird langfristig Wirkung zeigen.

  The measure will have an effect in the long run.

  the flat version — a prediction the writer owns

• Möglicherweise zeigt die Maßnahme langfristig Wirkung.

  The measure may possibly have an effect in the long run.

  much weaker: an open possibility, no lean either way

offenbar and anscheinend both point at evidence rather than at your own guess: something can be seen, and this is what it looks like. They are not weak — Offenbar wurde die Entscheidung bereits getroffen is close to asserting it, while making clear the writer inferred it rather than witnessed it.

• Offenbar wurde die Entscheidung bereits getroffen.

  The decision has apparently already been taken.

  inferred from evidence, and the writer believes it

• Angeblich wurde die Entscheidung bereits getroffen.

  The decision has supposedly already been taken.

  someone claims this — and the writer is keeping a distance

• Allem Anschein nach wurde die Entscheidung bereits getroffen.

  By all appearances the decision has already been taken.

  the formal version of anscheinend

angeblich is never neutral. Using it signals scepticism about the claim. Where you want to attribute without judging, use laut, zufolge or nach Angaben von.

For neutral attribution, three patterns do most of the work. laut + Dativ (or genitive in careful writing) goes in front: laut dem Bericht. zufolge follows its noun: dem Bericht zufolge. nach Angaben takes the genitive: nach Angaben des Unternehmens.

• Laut dem Bericht sind die Kosten gestiegen.

  According to the report, costs have risen.

  laut comes first

• Dem Bericht zufolge sind die Kosten gestiegen.

  According to the report, costs have risen.

  zufolge comes after the noun — the commonest mistake is putting it before

• Nach Angaben des Unternehmens sind die Kosten gestiegen.

  According to the company, costs have risen.

  genitive after Angaben

• Der Bericht legt nahe, dass die Kosten weiter steigen.

  The report suggests that costs will rise further.

  nahelegen: the source points towards it without stating it

Konjunktiv II builds the most cautious moves of all. es ließe sich argumentieren, dass … and es wäre denkbar, dass … put a proposal on the table without committing to it — indispensable in academic writing, and exactly what a seminar paper does when it introduces a position it will then test.

• Es ließe sich argumentieren, dass die Kosten zu hoch sind.

  It could be argued that the costs are too high.

• Es wäre denkbar, dass beide Erklärungen zutreffen.

  It would be conceivable that both explanations are correct.

• Man könnte annehmen, dass der Zusammenhang kausal ist.

  One might assume that the relationship is causal.

  often the first step before objecting to that assumption

• Es scheint, dass die Wirkung überschätzt wurde.

  It appears that the effect was overestimated.

One hedge per claim. Vermutlich dürfte die Maßnahme möglicherweise wirken is not careful writing, it is mush.